Measuring six claims about the future
Score Card of the
Singularity
Six claims are commonly made about where AI, robotics, and biotechnology are taking humanity: death becomes optional, every disease is cured, poverty ends, work becomes a choice, genius is available on demand, and suffering is cured.
Each claim is assigned one objective measure, a 2020 baseline value, and a completion threshold. This page reports where each measure currently stands and when it is estimated to reach completion.
Every claim has its own page. Each is colour coded, and that colour carries through to the page it opens. Select one below to see its supporting measures, recent developments, and the basis for its completion date.
measured
year
completion
completion
below baseline
The six claims · six pages
Progress by claim
Each card states the primary measure, its 2020 baseline, its current value, and the value at which the claim is satisfied. The bar shows the share of that distance covered. Select any card to open the full claim page.
Death becomes optional.
Every disease, cured.
Poverty ends everywhere.
Work becomes a choice.
Genius for everyone, on demand.
A cure for suffering itself.
Comparison
Progress against each primary measure
Share of the distance from the 2020 value to the completion threshold covered by each claim's primary measure. The unweighted mean of the six is 6.8 percent.
Each row links to its claim page.
Trajectory
Progress by year, 2020 to 2026
Each line plots one claim's progress score against the 2020 baseline. Values below zero indicate that the primary measure was further from completion than it was in 2020. Three measures fell below baseline during the pandemic period and the composite returned above baseline in 2023.
Each series in the legend links to its claim page.
Completion
Estimated completion dates
Central estimates. Each carries an uncertainty band wider than the spread between the six, and the two latest dates rest on assumptions no forecasting market currently prices. The basis for each estimate is set out on its claim page.
Observations
Summary of the board
What the six measures show when read together.
Composite progress is 6.8 percent.
The unweighted mean across the six primary measures has covered 6.8 percent of the distance from their 2020 values to their completion thresholds. The six measures are averaged without weighting; no claim is treated as more important than another.
Composite progress was below the baseline in 2021 and 2022.
Three measures fell below their 2020 values during the pandemic period: frontier life expectancy gains, the Negative Experience Index, and the pace of poverty reduction. The composite returned above baseline in 2023.
One claim accounts for close to half the movement.
Genius for everyone contributes 19.0 of the 40.4 percentage points on the board. The remaining five average 4.3 percent. The capability component of that index is the fastest-moving measure here by a wide margin.
Progress to date and estimated completion are not correlated.
Poverty is the second most complete claim at 12 percent and carries the second latest estimate at 2071. Genius is the most complete at 19 percent and the earliest at 2034. The six measures follow different functional forms, so rank order on progress does not predict rank order on arrival.
Three claims are constrained by distribution rather than capability.
For poverty, work, and the reach component of genius, the completion estimate is set by the rate at which existing capability propagates rather than by the rate at which new capability is developed.
Four supporting measures have moved away from their claims.
The global labour share of income, the concentration of extreme poverty in fragile states, global mental disorder burden, and the prevalence of depression and anxiety have each moved in the direction opposite to their claim since 2020. All four are supporting measures and none enters the composite score.
Read the detail
Open any claim
Six claim pages. Each carries its own colour, applied as the background of the page it opens.
